Electoral calculus

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Electoral calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model , which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. Across the eight general elections from to [8]. It was listed by The Guardian in as one of the " most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. John Rentoul in The Independent referred to the site after the election. The founder of Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter, and its sole employee, Marwan Riach, have regularly appeared on UK and international media to offer polling expertise to their audience. Contents move to sidebar hide.

This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. Cookies on Electoral calculus House services We use some essential cookies to make our services work.

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Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow. Electoral Calculus has launched a new data service for local parties and campaigners. For any seat, you can see detailed predictions and political attitudes at every local neighbourhood in the seat, at affordable cost. Analysis of recent polling suggests the Lib Dems will do well in their stronghold seats, but Labour has overtaken them in many seats where they came second at the last election. Analysis of forty years of by-election results shows that most by-election gains are overturned at the next general election. The Conservatives would win less than one hundred seats, and the Liberal Democrats are fighting the SNP for third place. The public want euthanasia legalised and house prices lowered, and don't think net zero will happen by New local council wards are now available for forty-nine councils across England whose ward boundaries have been changed in advance of the local elections in May Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in , outperforming all the competition.

Electoral calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling.

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Cookies on Companies House services We use some essential cookies to make our services work. Retrieved 6 February Company type Private limited Company Incorporated on 31 May Tools Tools. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Skip to main content. You've rejected analytics cookies. Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change. Retrieved 25 May The Daily Telegraph. To accept or reject analytics cookies, turn on JavaScript in your browser settings and reload this page.

Get the data on GitHub. The U.

It was listed by The Guardian in as one of the " most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. He attempts to apply scientific techniques to the electoral geography of Britain to predict the future general election results. Archived from the original on 5 May We'd also like to use analytics cookies so we can understand how you use our services and to make improvements. Cookies on Companies House services We use some essential cookies to make our services work. Archived from the original on 10 September The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. You've accepted analytics cookies. It considers national factors and local demographics. Tell us what you think of this service link opens a new window Is there anything wrong with this page? Hide this message.