Nfl playoff picture predictor

Everyone info. This is a small tool to help you predict the playoff picture of this year's NFL regular season, nfl playoff picture predictor. I might change this in the future Have fun with it, and let me know, if there is something that could be improved!

Can Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes do what no one ever has and win three in a row? We have our typical Super Bowl favorites and long shots, but we also have a few surprises thrown in to impact a competitive playoff picture. Down below, we dive into our early playoff predictions for the football season, going division by division, complete with our predicted Super Bowl outcome. Related: NFL mock draft. Who will be the Super Bowl winner? An odd season created doubts, but as we saw in the Wild Card round, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have shown they can immediately snap out of their funk. There was never a real threat to the AFC West division winners since

Nfl playoff picture predictor

The following table shows my NFL playoff predictor model. For more info about how it works, read below. This NFL playoff predictor model uses team ratings and quarterback adjustments to simulate the rest of the postseason 5, times and track how often each team wins the Super Bowl. But there are a few twists in these ratings:. Unlike the SRS, which uses a basic linear regression model, we use a ridge regression to account for the fact that NFL schedules are short and, in the case of quarterbacks, some starters may have only seen limited action during the season. By penalizing ratings that are less certain shrinking them toward an effect size of zero , ridge regression allows us to avoid large errors for ratings that suffer from multicollinearity. Each team carries a QB EPA rating on offense and defense, also determined by ridge regression, along with a rating for the QB who had the majority of attempts in a given game. The only other adjustment here is to also downweight Week 18 games if a team was resting its starters; games where both teams rested starters receive a weight of 0. Filed under: NFL , Statgeekery. Share this post. Copy link. Neil Paine. Jan 29, Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

The NFL playoffs are not a traditional bracket, where teams move through to a fixed spot.

You can jump to a specific section using the links below:. The top seven teams from the AFC will make the playoffs. The Chiefs, Ravens, Dolphins, and Bills are the teams who will be returning to the playoffs, as all have now clinched. The top seven seeds in the NFC will make the playoffs. The Rams, Lions, and Packers will be the three new faces in. The bracket for the NFC is fully set now.

Five playoff spots and multiple seeding battles remain, with 32 games left in the NFL regular season. The possible permutations of how those 32 games could go are virtually endless. So we're focusing on one specific scenario: chalk. We then picked a single simulation that yielded that pure chalk playoff seeding to forecast scores for each game and simulate the postseason. That might not sound like a lot, but it's a fairly high probability for an exact hit; both numbers are higher than when we did this exercise last season. Who snuck into the playoffs? Who landed the No. And who fell just short of the postseason? Let's take a look into the FPI's crystal ball.

Nfl playoff picture predictor

How this works: This forecast is based on 50, simulations of the season and updates after every game. Our quarterback-adjusted Elo model incorporates news reports to project likely starters for every upcoming game and uses our quarterback Elo ratings to adjust win probabilities for those games. Full methodology ». Game metrics are on a scale. Design and development by Jay Boice. Standings Games Quarterbacks. Forecast from Today Jan.

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With how young this roster is, expect an even better team to come out of the gates hot in , leading to a playoff appearance once again. Prior to the change, the top two seeds in each conference would get a bye through the wildcard round. Seattle, New Orleans and Minnesota all need the teams in front of them to lose to clinch playoff spots. Dan Campbell put his stamp on the Detroit Lions. Each team who makes the playoffs is seeded from in their respective conference. Being in one of the toughest divisions in football made competing for a Wild Card spot tough, especially after selling at the NFL trade deadline. Los Angeles Chargers. Enjoy risk-free action while you wait at SBD Play. But this is still one of the most talented rosters in football, meaning we expect the Cowboys to be as good as ever again in Copy link. After winning a playoff game for the first time since , and reaching the NFC Championship, the Lions will be a better team overall next season. The Buffalo Bills fell short of their Super Bowl dreams again, and it only serves as more fuel for Josh Allen to work out some of the turnover issues that plagued the team early on. But now they need a new QB, which puts them closer to the bottom than the top. Just like last season, we saw our first team eliminated from postseason contention after Week

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Buffalo can still clinch a playoff spot with a loss if either Pittsburgh or Jacksonville loses, or the Colts-Texans game ends in a tie. Instead of competing for top draft picks, the Texans snatched a playoff spot and even reached the Divisional Round, thanks to a dominant effort on both sides of the ball against Cleveland. The Packers have the benefit of playing at home, where they beat the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams during their playoff push. The Buffalo Bills fell short of their Super Bowl dreams again, and it only serves as more fuel for Josh Allen to work out some of the turnover issues that plagued the team early on. The Buccaneers gave opponents tough fits, but no one ever viewed them as serious contenders, yet they still reached the Divisional playoffs thanks to getting hot at the right time. The top seven seeds in the NFC will make the playoffs. Copy link. The NFL playoffs are not a traditional bracket, where teams move through to a fixed spot. After the Divisional Round comes the Conference Championships, where there are only two teams remaining in each conference. The 1-seed in each conference, who was given a bye through the Wildcard Round, will get matched up with the worst remaining team in their respective conference. The Chiefs, Ravens, Dolphins, and Bills are the teams who will be returning to the playoffs, as all have now clinched. A Steelers win over the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday afternoon puts pressure on the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars to win to keep their spots in the postseason field. With a top-five offense and defense, the 49ers are a force to be reckoned with. We saw our first team clinch a playoff spot this season after Week 14 as well, as the San Francisco 49ers punched their ticket to the postseason with a win over the Seahawks.